MBA755 - Reflections on Module 5 Concepts

a) What trend and pattern information does your organization pay attention to?
To be completely honest, I do not know. I would assume that since we are working in the healthcare industry we would pay attention to the trends affecting healthcare, distribution, technology, and treatment. However, after being with the company for over a year now, I have not seen any changes that flow with the change of the healthcare industry. For example, there have been several laws enacted by the government regulating the transport (distribution) of all drugs (Pedigree laws) and many other healthcare distributors have already gone ahead and tailored their businesses to be compliant. However, we have just scratched the iceburg of what needs to be done. This seems to be the case with many other areas - we start a project and never finish it. It may be ok to say that my company may follow trends in healthcare, but does nothing to adjust accordingly.

b) Could scenario planning be effectively used in your organization?

Absolutely! I think that scenario planning needs to be used in our company. Although there is a certain cetainty that healthcare distribution will always be needed based on the fact that there will always be people sick, in car accidents, and in need of treatment via drugs, medical devices and supplies. However, there are several items that could happen to make our line of healthcare service obsolete or configured to not be relevant to how business is done today. I was thinking that vendors could start selling direct to hospitals, fire departments etc. if they enable lean manufacturing across the board. The main reason they use wholesalers is because they don't have the storage to keep their products and it is costly to store these items. In addition, manufactureres don't have the capabilities to distribute at a low scale like we do; however, changes and advances in technology may soon allow for this. Plus with Pedigree, manufacturers may be forced to operate in this new way!

c) In what ways could you personally use scenario planning?

Ok so I'm assuming this is not business related and relative to my personal life. If so - great, if not, I will need re-assess my response :) I would say that scenario planning is a good way to plan for the future. What if I do not choose to stay with business? What if there is no longer a need for my type of field in the future? What if there are more requirements for education in the future? I don't know if these are valid questions, because I have not thought of doing any scenario planning - I do more forecasting (i.e. this is what is going to happen and this is how I am going to do it). However, I could see how this scenario planning could be helpful. I am now coming up with the idea of planning for the future with children - what if I have one, twins, triplets? College education, raising children, ideologies? What are my thoughts, what will happen if one gets sick, what if I get sick?

d) What do you see as the principal disadvantages of employing the scenario approach to strategic planning?

Scenario planning does not forecast or provide an accurate prediction into the future (Immell, 2005). Also, any company that is heavily engaged in projects and technology advancements should not delve into scenario planning - strategic planning is better. Also, scenario planning does not let you use financial figures to make decisions - they are more stories than anything. Debating is a big part of scenario planning, so if companies do not have time to debate of if the top executives do not support scenario planning, it will not work, strategic planning is the route to go.